UPDATE 12n: See updated graphic from NWS tweet below... The forecast cone does now touch the east coast.
Although, currently just a Tropical Storm, forecasters are predicting Florence will strengthen to Category 4 status, potentially making landfall, along the Carolina coast sometime Wednesday/Thursday.
The exact track is still is still not certain, but with each passing update, models continue to lean toward an east coast landfall - perhaps in the Carolinas - potentially as a Category 4 Hurricane.
In Virginia, the greatest risk is for the eastern beaches. Although the current predicted track is trending toward North and South Carolina, just a minor adjustment north could mean direct hit for Virginia Beach and Norfolk.
For interior Virginia, the impact would nowhere near as disastrous as a direct hit from a Cat 4 hurricane. But tropical conditions, perhaps even Florence as a Tropical Storm cannot yet be ruled out for the Roanoke/Lynchburg region. This could mean heavy amounts of flooding rains, sustained winds over 45mph, with higher gusts. Flooding, particular east of the Blue Ridge would be a great concern.
We will be monitoring the progress of Florence as it approaches the East Coast.
While still far too early to tell exactly what Florence will do, the forecast cone provided by the National Hurricane Center now touches the East coast. Florence is also forecast to become a major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) during the upcoming week. pic.twitter.com/5jcFIW0RAa— NWS Blacksburg (@NWSBlacksburg) September 8, 2018
As #Florence seems a likely outcome for USA east coast the pre exsisting conditions of saturated soils inland and beyond Appalachia may play a role in additional widespread inland FLOODING from Florence once it moves inland. WPC 7 day forecast hints at this merger. Stay tuned! pic.twitter.com/Rk5ydr8geJ— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) September 8, 2018