While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, has predicted that most of the United States will see warmer than average temperatures this winter, their outlook for this region does not.
The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, including Virginia, all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
We we also have a good chance of seeing more precipitation. Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the U.S., and up into the Mid-Atlantic.
Wetter + Colder means greater potential for 'Snowier'.
Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter.
Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing. “We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”
El Nino is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are expected to change, but the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur.
You can check out their press release here.